NESO··ReleaseEnergy & Grid
NESO forecasts secure winter electricity supplies with 5.9GW surplus
NESO's Winter Outlook 2026/27, published 23 October 2026, puts the forecast operational surplus at 5.9GW this winter, a 9.5% buffer above assessed peak demand and in line with last winter's margins. The operator says supplies should stay within government reliability standards, with battery storage, gas and wind making up the difference. Colder weather could still prompt routine tools such as Capacity Market Notices, alerts NESO sends when margins tighten rather than a sign of a looming shortage.
Our readThis 9.5% buffer will matter less in October than it does in January, when a cold snap and low wind can turn 5.9GW into a much tighter number.
Read the announcement at NESO →
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