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GridteamAI · Quarterly Sector Report · Gap 35
Ofwat’s PR24 Final Determinations: the £104 billion expenditure envelope for 2025–2030, the five CMA referrals and the Thames Water restructuring. Water flagship, Tranche 2. v2.1, Q3 2029 (forward-looking).
Series consistency · canonical Gap-series system
A4 · 210 × 297 mm
UK English · ~30 pp · v2.1 / Q3 2029
GridteamAI
Quarterly Sector Report
Gap 35
Utilities · Water
by GridteamAI
UK · Water · PR24 Price ReviewUnited Kingdom · Q3 2029

PR24 Final
Determinations.

Ofwat’s £104 billion settlement, the five CMA referrals and the Thames Water question — the Water flagship of Tranche 2.

gridteamai.com · book@gridteamai.comv2.1 · Q3 2029Consultancy-grade deliverable
PR24 Final Determinations · Executive summary06
00 · Executive SummaryA two-page brief

A £104 billion settlement, five CMA referrals, and the Thames Water question.

PR24 Final Determinations issued by Ofwat in December 2024 set the 2025-2030 control period framework for the eleven English + Welsh water + sewerage undertakers.

PR24 total expenditure envelope: approximately £104 billion across the five-year control period — substantially larger than the equivalent PR19 envelope.

Five companies referred by Ofwat to the CMA on 18 March 2025: Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, South East Water, Southern Water, and Wessex Water. Thames Water requested a CMA reference but agreed with Ofwat to defer the formal reference by up to 18 weeks. CMA Provisional Findings issued 2025; Final Determinations through 2025-2026. (Corrected on independent web verification 2026-05-29.)

07Executive summary · continued

The ten things to know.

  1. PR24 Final Determinations issued by Ofwat in December 2024 set the 2025-2030 control period framework for the eleven English + Welsh water + sewerage undertakers.
  2. PR24 total expenditure envelope: approximately £104 billion across the five-year control period — substantially larger than the equivalent PR19 envelope.
  3. Five companies referred by Ofwat to the CMA on 18 March 2025: Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, South East Water, Southern Water, and Wessex Water. Thames Water requested a CMA reference but agreed with Ofwat to defer the formal reference by up to 18 weeks. CMA Provisional Findings issued 2025; Final Determinations through 2025-2026. (Corrected on independent web verification 2026-05-29.)
  4. The eleven English + Welsh water + sewerage undertakers: Thames Water, Severn Trent, United Utilities, Yorkshire Water, Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, South West Water (incl. Bristol Water acquired), Wessex Water, Southern Water, Dwr Cymru / Welsh Water, Hafren Dyfrdwy.
  5. Additional water-only undertakers operate alongside: Affinity Water, SES Water, Portsmouth Water, South East Water + others.
  6. Scottish Water + NI Water operate under separate regulatory regimes (Gap 42 cross-ref) — outside PR24.
  7. Customer bills rose materially across most companies — the average household bill increases over the 2025-2030 control period are the largest in recent UK water industry history.
  8. PR24 introduces enhanced performance commitments including storm overflows (Gap 38), leakage reduction, drought resilience, customer service and biodiversity.
  9. Thames Water financial position has been the single most consequential UK water industry issue of the PR24 cycle — restructuring, ownership + financial covenant issues have dominated PR24 implementation.
  10. The strategic implication: PR24 is the regulatory framework that will determine whether UK water industry delivers a step-change in performance + investment over 2025-2030, or whether the financial + political challenges of Thames Water + the wider sector materially constrain the framework's effectiveness.
Figures—
Figure 1 · The £104 bn envelopeGridteamAI · restyled v2

The PR24 expenditure envelope across the 2025–2030 control period.

Ofwat issued PR24 Final Determinations in December 2024 — a £104 billion expenditure envelope, the largest household bill increases in recent UK water industry history, and five CMA referrals.

The £104 bn PR24 expenditure envelope, 2025–2030, and the five CMA appellants.
Fig. 1

The £104 bn PR24 expenditure envelope, 2025–2030, and the five CMA appellants.

2 · Twelve findings09
2 · Twelve findingsQ3 2029

Twelve findings. Each carries a confidence level.

HIGH — verified against a named primary source. MEDIUM — named UK industry coverage cross-referenced to a primary source. LOW — GridteamAI scenario projection, marked as such.

UK water treatment works aerial — modern facility layout, additional water sector option
A modern UK water treatment works from the air.
  1. 01PR24 Final Determinations issued December 2024 set the framework.HIGH
  2. 02Five companies appealed to the CMA.HIGH
  3. 03The £104 bn total expenditure envelope is the headline framework number.HIGH
  4. 04Customer bill trajectory is materially upward.HIGH
  5. 05Eleven English + Welsh water + sewerage undertakers operate under PR24.HIGH
  6. 06Performance commitments include storm overflows + leakage + drought + biodiversity.HIGH
  7. 07Thames Water financial position dominates PR24 implementation.HIGH
  8. 08Devolved water systems operate separately (Scottish Water + NI Water).HIGH
  9. 09PR24 sits within wider UK water policy framework.HIGH
  10. 10Q3 2029 forward outlook depends on PR24 mid-cycle delivery.MEDIUM
  11. 11Three plausible scenarios for Q3 2029.MEDIUM
  12. 12Implications for undertakers, Ofwat, customers and Government.MEDIUM