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GridteamAI
The deepest saving in AR7+AR7a — 20.9 MW at £265/MWh, and the UK’s global lead in tidal stream.
AR7a Pot 2 (Tidal Stream) awarded 20.9 MW at £265.00/MWh on 10 February 2026 — a 28.57% saving against the £371 Administrative Strike, the deepest single % saving across the entire AR7 + AR7a round.
The UK is the global leader in tidal stream deployment — MeyGen (world’s largest), Orbital’s O2 (world’s most powerful floating, 2 MW), Nova’s Shetland array (world’s first commercial offshore array). EMEC Orkney is the global reference test centre.
At £265/MWh, tidal sits at the high end of the renewable cost curve — above floating wind (£216.49/MWh, Gap 28) and fixed offshore (£91.20/MWh, Gap 08) — reflecting early-stage deployment. A path to £150-180/MWh by 2030 is plausible with sustained AR allocation.
GridteamAI base case: AR8 Pot 2 tidal allocation grows to 30-50 MW; UK operational tidal stream reaches 50-80 MW; the O2 floating demonstrator + first commercial follow-on in development; EMEC test capacity sustained; industry confidence rebuilding from AR7a price discovery.
The shape of this volume. Section 1 sets out the headline figures. Section 2 develops twelve findings, each confidence-annotated. A chapter-weight pull at p. 14 anchors the argument. Section 3 sets out UK marine energy leadership — MeyGen, O2, Shetland, EMEC. Section 4 covers AR7a and the cost-down pathway. Section 5 covers tidal vs wave and the forward pathway. Section 6 makes recommendations, with a one-page tear-out at p. 25.
Tidal stream cleared the deepest single percentage saving against an Administrative Strike across the whole round. Modest volume, material cost discovery — and tidal sits at the high end of the renewable cost curve, with a plausible path to £150-180/MWh by 2030.
Tidal’s 28.57% saving (moss) is the deepest in the round; the comparator bars (neutral) sit lower. 20.9 MW at £265/MWh — material price discovery at small volume.
HIGH — verified against DESNZ, EMEC, a named developer or recognised industry body. MEDIUM — named UK industry coverage cross-referenced to a primary source. LOW — GridteamAI scenario projection, marked as such.
Findings 01 – 12 · summary
Findings 01 – 09 follow in detail · pp. 10 – 12 · 10 – 12 summarised on the matrix
DESNZ’s AR7a allocation (results published 10 February 2026) awarded 20.9 MW of tidal stream at £265.00/MWh in 2024 prices — a 28.57% saving against the £371/MWh Pot 2 Administrative Strike Price. The 28.57% saving is the deepest single % saving across the entire AR7 + AR7a allocation round (offshore wind 19.29%; Scotland 20.81%; floating 20.11%; solar 13.03%; onshore 21.48%). The 20.9 MW volume is modest, but the % saving signals competitive bidding among a small developer pool — Pot 2 oversubscribed at the Administrative Strike. Tidal stream is competitively bankable below the strike, even at small-scale deployment.
The MeyGen tidal stream array in the Pentland Firth — operated by SAE Renewables — is the world’s largest operating tidal stream project. MeyGen Phase 1 commissioned 6 MW (four 1.5 MW Andritz Hydro Hammerfest turbines); additional capacity is in development under Phase 1B and Phase 2. The Pentland Firth — the strait between Caithness and Orkney — is the highest tidal energy density site in UK waters and one of the highest globally. MeyGen demonstrates that UK + Scottish tidal stream technology has reached operational maturity for industrial deployment in suitable high-tidal-flow sites.
Orbital Marine Power’s O2 floating tidal turbine — moored at EMEC’s Fall of Warness test site in Orkney — is the world’s most powerful operating floating tidal generator at 2 MW. The O2 represents a different deployment architecture from MeyGen’s seabed-mounted turbines: floating deployment opens significantly larger commercial sites with deeper water, less restrictive bathymetry, and potentially lower installation costs. Orbital is positioned for commercial-scale floating tidal projects pending the AR allocation pathway + Crown Estate Scotland marine seabed leasing. The O2 demonstrator and planned follow-on deployments are central to the UK floating tidal proposition.