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GridteamAI · Quarterly Sector Report · Gap 10
UK Solar Farms 2028 Decode — from 20 GW operational to a 45–47 GW target by 2030, decoded
Series consistency · canonical Gap-series system
A4 · 210 × 297 mm · 3 mm bleed (not shown)
UK English · 2026 edition · v1.0
FRONT MATTERi · Cover · ink · full bleed
GridteamAI
Quarterly Sector Report
Volume Gap 10
Renewables Generation
by GridteamAI
UK · Solar PV · Roadmap · NSIP 100 MW · AR7a United Kingdom · Q2 2028

UK Solar
Farms 2028.

From 20 GW operational to a 45–47 GW target by 2030, a 72-action Solar Roadmap, and AR7a’s record 4.9 GW allocation.

gridteamai.com · book@gridteamai.com 2026 edition · v1.0 Consultancy-grade deliverable
05 — 06Executive summary · spread
UK Solar Farms 2028 Decode · Executive summary05
00 · Executive Summary A two-page brief

Past 20 GW operational, with a 45–47 GW target and a record AR7a allocation behind it.

UK solar passed 20 GW operational in November 2025, from 18.1 GW in March. The DESNZ Solar Roadmap (June 2025) sets a 45–47 GW GB ambition by 2030 — about 2.5× the March 2025 baseline — with grid capacity for up to 10 GW more.

The Roadmap sets out 72 actions across planning, grid, supply chain, finance and adoption. The NSIP solar threshold rose from 50 to 100 MW (England only) on 31 December 2025 — the same Order that raised onshore wind (Gap 09).

AR7a (10 February 2026) cleared a record 4,905 MW of solar across 157 projects at £65.23/MWh — a 13.03% saving. England-dominant at 86.6%; West Burton (480 MW) the largest cluster. REPD shows 6,075 MW approved in 12 months — +37% on the 2023 peak.

The Q3 2027 picture

Solar+BESS co-location is normalising for connection-capacity efficiency; the land-use debate is consolidating around the Roadmap’s 0.6%-of-farmland commitment. AR8 (2027) is the next major round; the REPD pipeline keeps maturing toward the 2030 target.

The shape of this volume. Section 1 sets out the headline figures. Section 2 develops twelve findings, each confidence-annotated. A chapter-weight pull at p. 14 anchors the argument. Section 3 sets out the solar architecture — fleet, pipeline, CfD, Roadmap. Section 4 covers the 72 actions and AR7a solar detail. Section 5 covers geography, solar+BESS and land use. Section 6 makes recommendations, with a one-page tear-out at p. 25.

Executive summary · ends1 · The headline figures · p. 07
09 · FIG. 13 · 18 → 47 GW solar trajectory · restyled -v2
1 · The headline figures09
Figure 1 · The solar trajectory to 2030DESNZ Solar Roadmap · Jun 2025

18.1 GW (Mar 2025) to 45–47 GW by 2030 — a ~2.5× expansion.

Past 20 GW in November 2025; 72-action Roadmap; up to 10 GW additional grid capacity; no more than 0.6% of UK farmland.

UK operational solar trajectory: 18.1 GW March 2025, 19 GW June, 20+ GW November 2025, against a 45–47 GW Clean Power 2030 target — about a 2.5× expansion needing roughly 25 GW of additions in five years.
Fig. 1 / Section 3

The bars climb from 18.1 GW (Mar 2025) to the 45–47 GW 2030 ambition — about 2.5×. Moss marks the 2030 target; 20 GW was passed in November 2025.

Quarterly Sector Report · Gap 102 · Twelve findings · p. 10
09 — 102 · Twelve findings · 01 – 03
2 · Twelve findings on UK solar to 203010
2 · Twelve findings on UK solar to 2030Q2 2028

Twelve findings. Each carries a confidence level.

HIGH — verified against a NESO, Ofgem, DNO or DESNZ primary source. MEDIUM — named UK industry coverage cross-referenced to a primary source. None is forward-looking opinion unless framed as such.

Findings 01 – 12 · summary

  1. 01UK solar passed 20 GW operational in November 2025 — from 18.1 GW in March 2025.
  2. 02The DESNZ Solar Roadmap (June 2025) sets a 45–47 GW GB ambition by 2030 — ~2.5×.
  3. 03The Roadmap sets out 72 actions across planning, grid, supply chain, finance and adoption.
  4. 04AR7a cleared a record 4,905 MW of solar PV at £65.23/MWh — 13.03% below the £75 cap.
  5. 05AR7a solar is 86.6% England (4,247 MW); Scotland and Wales ~6.7% each.
  6. 06REPD: 677 solar projects (6,075 MW) approved in 12 months to Q4 2025 — +37% on 2023.
  7. 07West Burton Solar (three sites, 480 MW, England) is the largest single AR7a cluster.
  8. 08Solar+BESS co-location is normalising for connection-capacity efficiency.
  9. 09The NSIP solar threshold rose 50 → 100 MW (England only) on 31 December 2025.
  10. 10The Roadmap commits to no more than 0.6% of UK farmland used by the 2030 target.
  11. 11Solar is ~20% of the 200–225 GW Clean Power 2030 envelope — second only to offshore wind.
  12. 12The Q2 2028 picture: AR7a 2027/28 cohort commissioning, AR8 in design, solar+BESS growing.

Findings 01 – 09 follow in detail · pp. 10 – 14 · 10 – 12 summarised on the matrix

Quarterly Sector Report · Gap 102
112 · Findings 01 – 03
2 · Findings 01 — 03Record · offshore · solar
Finding 01 · HIGH

UK solar passed 20 GW operational in November 2025 — a Tier-1 milestone.

18.1 GW (March 2025) → 19 GW (June) → 20+ GW (November 2025), across ~1.8 million installations. Solar has moved from the scaling category into the structural backbone of UK clean power; combined with growing BESS (Gap 06) and DSR (Gap 12), its system-integration value is expanding. Projected Q2 2028 fleet: 28–32 GW.

Finding 02 · HIGH

The 2030 GB ambition is 45–47 GW — a 2.5× increase from March 2025.

Per the DESNZ Solar Roadmap (June 2025): 45–47 GW of all solar types by 2030, with grid capacity for up to 10 GW more should the system need it. Against the 18.1 GW March 2025 baseline this is ~2.5×, needing roughly 27 GW of net additions in five years. Solar is the second-largest single 2030 technology after offshore wind.

Finding 03 · HIGH

AR7a cleared a record 4,905 MW of solar PV at £65.23/MWh.

4,905.01 MW across 157 projects (72 delivering 2027/28, 85 in 2028/29) at £65.23/MWh (2024 prices) — a 13.03% saving on the £75 Administrative Strike Price. The largest single UK solar CfD allocation to date, and the structural anchor of the 45–47 GW trajectory.

2 · 01 – 03Findings 04 – 06 · facing